In this covid −19 pandemic, it is
known that are 5,667,355 confirmed
cases out of 273,500,000 in X country
population based WHO.
One of the equipment to test the
covid−19 is GeNose C19−S developed
by UGM. GeNose C19−S is a rapid
screening equipment for Sars−CoV2
virus infection through the breath
of Covid −19 patient . It is claim
that the sensivity of the test is 0,90
that is, if a person has the disease,
then the probability that the diagnostic
blood test comes back positive
is 0,90. In addition , the specificity
of the test is 0,95, i.e if a person
is free the disease, then the probability
that the diagnostic test comes back
negative is 0,95.
Let D and H is the event that a
randomly selected individual has
the disease and disease−free
(healty), respectively.
a. What is the positive predictive
value of the GeNose C19−S test?
That is, given that the blood test
is positive for disease, what is the
probability that person actually has
the disease?
b. If the doctor perfoms the test for
the second time , taking P(D) equals
to the value of probability you
obtained from part a), determine
the update positive predictive
value of the test.
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